基于贝叶斯MCMC方法的高斯烟羽模型不确定性分析

doi:10.11889/j.0253-3219.2020.hjs.43.040009

Nuclear Techniques ›› 2020, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 40009-040009.doi: 10.11889/j.0253-3219.2020.hjs.43.040009

• SPECIAL SECTION ON THE 11TH NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON NEW AND RESEARCH REACTORS (PART I) • Previous Articles Next Articles

Uncertainty analysis of Gaussian plume model based on Bayesian MCMC method

Weijie CUI^1,²,Bo CAO^1,²(),Yixue CHEN^1,²

^1.School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
^2.Beijing Key Laboratory of Passive Nuclear Safety Technology, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2020-02-09 Revised:2020-03-05 Online:2020-04-15 Published:2020-04-20
Contact: Bo CAO E-mail:caobo@ncepu.edu.cn
About author:CUI Weijie, male, born in 1995, graduated from North China Electric Power University in 2018, master student, focusing on nuclear environmental safety
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(11605059);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2018MS042)

释放高度 Release height / m	参考风速 Wind speed / m·s^-1	释放半径 Release radius / m	释放速率 Release rate / m·s^-1	烟羽温度 Plume temperature / ℃	浓度 Air concentration / 10⁵ Bq·m^-3
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	4.31
48	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	2.83
56	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	1.97
64	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	1.43
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	4.31
40	4.8	0.30	1.5	100	3.79
40	5.6	0.30	1.5	100	3.38
40	6.4	0.30	1.5	100	3.05
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	4.31
40	4.0	0.36	1.5	100	4.10
40	4.0	0.42	1.5	100	3.90
40	4.0	0.48	1.5	100	3.73
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	4.31
40	4.0	0.30	1.8	100	4.20
40	4.0	0.30	2.1	100	4.10
40	4.0	0.30	2.4	100	4.02
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	100	4.31
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	120	4.21
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	140	4.14
40	4.0	0.30	1.5	160	4.08

下风向距离 Downwind distance / km	最小值 Minimum value / Bq·m^-3	最大值 Maximum value / Bq·m^-3	众数 Mode / Bq·m^-3	标准差 Standard deviation / Bq·m^-3
0.5	6.479×10³	9.117×10⁵	1.007×10⁵	5.375×10⁴
0.8	4.251×10⁴	7.970×10⁵	2.148×10⁵	4.619×10⁴
1.0	5.878×10⁴	6.558×10⁵	2.147×10⁵	3.764×10⁴
2.0	5.914×10⁴	2.873×10⁵	1.324×10⁵	2.025×10⁴
5.0	2.490×10⁴	8.403×10⁴	4.639×10⁴	7.701×10³

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Uncertainty analysis of Gaussian plume model based on Bayesian MCMC method

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